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DISCUSSION ISSUES
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Red Sea Shipping crisis has dragged on for five months, and a full resumption of transits is not in sight. This is rattling supply chains, leading to delays and higher costs, but it won’t derail global trade and the inflationary impact of higher container rates remains limited.
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The number of vessels entering Bab el Mandeb strait (Red Sea entrance) is still declining while Cape of Good Hope roundings have gone up, including a number of tankers.
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Re-routing container trade is becoming the new normal and has been priced in.
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Production interruptions at manufacturers short lived – trade delayed, not derailed.
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KEY TAKEAWAYS
Higher Shipping Costs
Higher shipping costs due to the Red Seas Shipping Crisis do have a transmission impact, but won’t turn the course of inflation.
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Supply Chain Disruptions
During the pandemic, the long-lasting supply chain disruptions added up to 2.5 percentage points to US personal consumption expenditure price inflation. However, supply chains are now far less disrupted and average shipping rates (including term contracts) are not anywhere near the peaks we saw then. With international shipping costs accounting for 3% of manufacturing's final costs and less than 1% of input prices, according to European Central Bank research, any transmission to inflation is likely to be limited to a fraction of this.
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Impact on Commodity Markets
In terms of commodity flows, oil markets appear most affected. Large volumes of both crude oil and refined product move through the Red Sea. EIA numbers show that around 9m bbl/dofoil and products moved through the region in the first half of last year. Tanker volumes have fallen significantly as attacks have escalated. According to IMF PortWatch, average daily tanker transit at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was down around 48% year-on-year. Nevertheless, according to analysts, ICE Brent should still average US$82/bbl over 2024, with a key assumption that the disruptions do not engulf larger parts of the Middle East.
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Panelists
SUBHANGSHU DUTT
Executive Director
OM MARITIME
DATUK IAN JAMES
Vice President Asia Pacific
HAMBURG PORT CONSULTING
PUNIT OZA
Founder
MARITIME NXT
Subhangshu Dutt, a shipping veteran of more than 40 years, is presently the Executive Director for Om Maritime Pte Ltd. He was the executive Director for Krishnapatnam Port Pte Ltd from Feb 2010 to Aug 2015 where he was overall in charge of Port Marketing.
Before that, Dutt had an illustrious career was with the Pacific International Lines (PIL) Group till 2008. From 2006-2008, Dutt was the CEO Pacific Shipping Trust (PST). PST was the first listed ship financing vehicle on the SGX. He took the company through successful IPO in May 2006. During the two year term, Dutt had doubled the asset base and the revenues. From 1988 to 2006, Dutt headed Various Management Positions with the PIL Group. Till 2006, he was heading the Strategic Planning Team designing Liner networks and optimizing vessel utilization. Alliance negotiations.
From 1971 to 1988, Dutt was on board many ships as a Ship Captain and was in command of many vessels.
Dutt is Singapore Branch Ex-Chairman of the Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers (ICS). ICS is an international body of professionals in Shipping Industry. Dutt is also a Director on the Board of Singapore Indian Chamber of Commerce & Industry (SICCI) SICCI.
Datuk Ian James is the present Vice President Asia Pacific of Hamburg Port Consulting since May 2023.
Datuk Ian James was the chief operating officer (COO) of Yilport Holding, a subsidiary of the Yildirim Group, Turkey from 2020 to 2022.
Before taking on this role at Yilport, Ian was the Group CEO of Malaysia’s largest port group, MMC Ports, from 2016 to 2019, where he oversaw five terminals in Malaysia.
In addition to this executive position, James held directorships in all the companies under his purview at MMC Ports.
Prior to joining MMC Port Holdings Sdn Bhd, Datuk Ian James was the Chief Operating Officer and Projects Director at Westports Malaysia. He began his career as deck cadet officer in 1981 rising to the rank of Acting Chief Officer with Neptune Orient Line involved in container, tanker and general cargo vessels. He had since then held a number of senior management positions in his previous employment at DB Schenker, PSA Singapore Terminals and United Arab Shipping Company.
Datuk Ian James is a Master Mariner and has a Master of Science in International Transport from the University of Wales College of Cardiff.
Punit Oza has over 30 years of experience in Dry Bulk Shipping, holding senior management positions in some leading shipping companies including Precious Shipping, Noble Group & Torvald Klaveness. At Klaveness, after holding senior commercial positions, Punit spearheaded the digital transformation of Klaveness Dry Bulk.
After working in various corporates, Punit now helms his own company, Maritime NXT, Singapore, a platform dedicated to training, teaching, mentoring, consulting & collaborating in commercial shipping & digital transformation space. He is deeply involved with the maritime tech-startup space and is an angel investor and advisor in Motion Ventures, a VC fund focused on Maritime and Supply Chain startups.
Punit also sits on the advisory boards of Go Beyond Digital, a risk management solution powered by artificial intelligence & Tathya-Earth, a cutting-edge supply chain transparency solution enabled by analytic satellite imaging.
Punit holds a Masters in Shipping, Trade and Finance from Bayes (previously CASS) Business School, UK and a LLB and Post Graduate Diploma in Maritime Law from University of London.
THOMAS NG
Director
CILT SINGAPORE
MODERATOR
Thomas Ng has over 29 years of consulting experience in the ports and shipping industry. Thomas is known for developing innovative solutions for players within the ports & shipping industry.
He is the Executive Chairman of The Global Ports Forum (GPF) since 2008. The GPF is a platform where all ports stakeholders in the ecosystem- port customers, port authorities, port operators, port people, port suppliers & service providers are gathered together to discuss about issues furthering the interests of ports globally.
Some of his recent port investments advisory work include ports in the Middle East, Africa, Southern Europe, South East Asia, Latin America, etc.
Given Thomas’ far-reaching personal port industry network and linkages, Thomas is often seek by port investors and
port privatisation candidates all over the world for collaborative partnership. Thomas is also invited regularly as speaker & facilitator at Ports conferences, roundtable and executive workshops.